Treasury yields rebound, dollar undermined by US growth worries

26/02/2025 07:57 AST

US Treasury yields regained some lost ground on Wednesday after the House of Representatives advanced President Donald Trump's tax-cut agenda, while the dollar and oil prices struggled on mounting worries over US growth.

US stock futures rebounded after a mixed session on Wall Street, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.6%, while SP 500 futures gained 0.4%.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures similarly edged 0.66% higher, while FTSE futures tacked on 0.7%. DAX futures jumped 0.84%.

U.S. copper prices surged more than 4% while those elsewhere fell overnight after Trump on Tuesday ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports.

The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives late on Tuesday narrowly passed Trump's $4.5 trillion tax-cut plan, sending the budget resolution to the Senate, where Republicans are expected to take it up.

U.S. Treasury yields advanced on the news as investors anticipate more debt issuance ahead, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 3 basis points to 4.3289%.

The two-year yield similarly rose about 3 bps to 4.1271%.

"(The plan) moved through just a little bit quicker than people were expecting," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. "You can see the way that yields are moving, it certainly caught them off guard a little bit."

Yields had fallen to their lowest in months in the previous session as traders ramped up bets of more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year on growing concerns over the outlook for the world's largest economy.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated at its sharpest pace in 3-1/2 years in February - the latest in a string of surveys suggesting that businesses and consumers were becoming increasingly rattled by the Trump administration's policies.

"We're not surprised that we're getting these weak consumer confidence numbers. What we are surprised about, though, is that we're getting them now, before consumers see the impact of tariffs," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

Fed funds futures now point to more than 50 bps of easing priced in by year-end, up from about 40 bps a week ago.

That in turn weighed on the dollar, particularly against the yen. The greenback slid to an over four-month low against the Japanese currency in the previous session.

It last traded 0.27% higher at 149.42 yen, thanks to the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields.

In other currencies, the euro eased 0.21% to $1.0491, but was not far from a one-month high. Sterling was similarly near a two-month top and last bought $1.2637.

"What we're seeing is the dollar weakens because of this soft economic data, but at some point, you hit a threshold where you get safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar," said CBA's Capurso.

"So if things get really, really bad in America, let's say the market starts pricing in a recession or something close to a recession, the U.S. dollar always goes up."

Fears of slowing U.S. growth also cast a shadow over the outlook for oil demand.

Brent futures were up 0.25% to $73.20 a barrel having fallen more than 2% in the previous session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.23% to $69.09 per barrel, reversing some of Tuesday's 2.5% slump.

Gold was little changed at $2,915.09 an ounce.

NVIDIA EARNINGS AWAITED
AI poster child Nvidia reports its quarterly earnings later on Wednesday, which could offer clarity on demand and justify the sector's lofty valuations.

Investor scepticism has grown over the billions that U.S. tech firms have channelled into AI infrastructure due to slow payoffs and breakthroughs at China's DeepSeek.

"Any signs of weakness in Nvidia's report could have outsized effects on investor sentiment towards AI stocks as a whole," said Saxo's global head of investment strategy Jacob Falkencrone.

"This earnings report isn't just about Nvidia ... it's about whether the AI revolution can maintain its breakneck pace."

In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 1.14%, helped by a rally in Chinese markets. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.4%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged more than 3%, with the Hang Seng Tech index also rising 4.75%.

The CSI300 blue-chip index edged 0.6% higher, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.74%.

Chinese stocks have been on a tear over the past few weeks, driven by DeepSeek's AI breakthrough that reignited investor interest in China's technology capabilities.

However, the rally hit a speed bump earlier this week on news that the Trump administration plans to tighten semiconductor curbs on China and after the U.S. president signed a memorandum directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. to restrict Chinese investments in strategic areas.

"It is recklessly complacent to brush off all tariff threats from the U.S. as a bluff that is meant as leverage," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho.

"Especially not in China's case. Fact is, the U.S. intends to inflict significant industrial pain that compromises technological advantage and manufacturing clout or capacity."

Reuters