Oil prices fall as capture of Maduro raises questions over supply

06/01/2026 02:39 AST

Oil prices opened the first full trading week of 2026 with a muted reaction to one of the most dramatic geopolitical events in recent history: the weekend US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Benchmarks such as Brent crude edged slightly lower, with WTI also dipping as investors weighed whether the upheaval in Caracas could meaningfully alter the supply-demand balance in a market already grappling with oversupply and subdued demand growth.

The Wall Street Journal and other outlets noted that markets were awaiting clarity on the oil supply implications of the US action, but initial trading suggested traders saw limited near-term disruption. Brent, the global oil benchmark, has hovered around $60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate - the US marker - has remained near mid-$50s, continuing the downtrend that marked 2025 as one of the poorest years for crude in half a decade.

Analysts point out that Venezuela's current contribution to global oil production is minimal. Once a petrostate powerhouse, the country's output has plummeted over the last two decades due to mismanagement, sanctions and deteriorated infrastructure - a decline that means Venezuela now accounts for less than 1 per cent of actual global oil supply despite holding some 17-20 per cent of proven reserves. As a result, the market's limited near-term price reaction reflects the view that political headlines alone do not equate to real supply shocks.

Energy strategists argue that even if US companies were to re-enter the Venezuelan oil sector, the timeframes involved are measured in years, not weeks or months. Upgrading facilities in Venezuela's heavy-crude-rich Orinoco Belt requires massive capital investment, robust logistics and a sustained security environment - prerequisites that do not materialize overnight. Reviving production meaningfully could take well into the latter part of the decade.

"Washington's operational success over the weekend does not automatically translate into increased barrels on the global market," says an industry trader in London. "Markets are correct to distinguish between geopolitical noise and tangible supply shifts."

This fundamental weakness in demand relative to supply is underscored by official forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent and WTI prices to remain under downward pressure through 2026 as production growth outpaces consumption, with Brent averaging near the mid-$50s and WTI near the low-$50s over the next year. EIA data highlights record U.S. output levels contributing to a supply surplus that threatens to swamp inventories further.

Global oil market consultancies echo the bearish consensus. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have maintained 2026 price forecasts at around $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, emphasising that any Venezuelan recovery would be gradual and dependent on substantial investment and political stability - factors that remain uncertain despite the recent regime change. Meanwhile, forecasts from multiple agencies suggest supply could exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026 - a glut equivalent to roughly four per cent of world consumption - keeping downward pressure on crude.

Beyond fundamentals, geopolitical dynamics still play a secondary role. Precious metals such as gold and silver surged in early trading as markets sought safe havens amid the Venezuela upheaval, reflecting broader risk aversion. Meanwhile, Venezuela's sovereign and state oil-company bonds rallied sharply on speculation about debt restructuring prospects following Maduro's capture.

Yet investment firms remain cautious. Choice Institutional Equities, covering broader market impacts, projects Brent prices averaging around $61.5 through 2026, with limited downward pressure until Venezuelan barrels potentially enter supply lines in earnest.

Looking beyond this year, some strategists warn that oil prices could revisit or even breach sub-$50 territory in a scenario where oversupply persists, non-OPEC production grows and demand growth remains moderate. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters warn that structural surpluses, rather than geopolitical shocks, will ultimately define price trajectories through 2026 and possibly beyond - unless coordinated supply discipline emerges from major producers.

While the US strike in Venezuela has added a dramatic twist to oil market narratives, it has not fundamentally altered the bearish undercurrents driving prices: chronic oversupply, production growth in the US and other regions, and the complexities of returning Venezuelan oil to international markets, analysts note.

Khaleej Times