Oil prices are set for biggest annual drop since 2020

01/01/2026 03:44 AST

Oil prices were slightly lower on Wednesday, and headed for a fall of more than 15 per cent in 2025, as expectations of oversupply increased in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs, increased OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Brent crude futures were down over 17 per cent - the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020 - and were on track for a third straight year of losses, their longest-ever losing streak. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was headed for a near 19 per cent annual decline.

BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying anticipates Brent will dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2026 as supply growth normalises and demand stays flat.

"The reason why we're more bearish than the market in the near term is that we think that US shale producers were able to hedge at high levels," he said.

"So the supply from shale producers will be more consistent and insensitive to price movements."

After rising slightly earlier in the day, Brent futures were down 31 cents at $61.02 a barrel by 1808 GMT, while U.S. WTI crude was at $57.59, down 36 cents. The 2025 average prices for both benchmarks are the lowest since 2020, LSEG data showed.

US crude stocks fell last week, but distillate and gasoline inventories grew more than expected, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"It was a modestly supportive report on crude drawdown but the inners of the report are not so great and it will probably be a rough January and February with the holidays in the rearview mirror," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Markets.

Crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 422.9 million barrels in the week ended December 26, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 867,000-barrel draw.

US gasoline stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels in the week to 234.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel build.? Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 5 million barrels to 123.7 million barrels, versus projections of a 2.2 million-barrel rise.

Oil markets had a strong start to 2025 when former President Joe Biden ended his term by imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, disrupting supplies to major buyers China and India. The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy markets intensified when Ukrainian drones damaged Russian infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan's oil exports.

The 12-day Iran-Israel conflict in June added to the threats to supply by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global seaborne oil, which fanned oil prices. In recent weeks, OPEC's biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have become locked in a crisis over Yemen, and US President Donald Trump has ordered a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports and threatened another strike on Iran.

Opec+ accelerated output increases
But prices eased after OPEC+ accelerated its output increases this year and as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs weighed on global economic and fuel demand growth.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, has paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April. The next OPEC+ meeting is on January 4. Most analysts expect supply to exceed demand next year, with estimates ranging from the International Energy Agency's 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs' 2 million bpd.

"If the price really has a substantial fall, I would imagine you will see some cuts (from OPEC+)," said Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist. "But it probably does need to fall quite a bit further from here on - maybe in the low $50s."

"If today's price simply prevails, after the pause in Q1, they'll probably continue to unwind these cuts."

John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy, expects geopolitical risks to support oil prices even though market fundamentals point to oversupply.

"Everybody's saying it'll get weaker into 2026 and even beyond," he said. "But I wouldn't ignore the geopolitics, and the Trump factor is going to be playing out because he wants to be involved in everything."

Reuters