Non-oil growth fuels 3% GDP rise across GCC in early 2025

07/10/2025 02:57 AST

Gulf Cooperation Council economies expanded by 3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product reaching $588.1 billion, up from $570.9 billion in the same period of 2024, according to official data.

This growth, according to the Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, or GCC-Stat, was primarily fueled by a significant expansion in non-oil activities, which accounted for 73.2 percent of the region's GDP - a 2.6-percentage-point increase from 70.6 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, the Oman News Agency reported.

This comes as economic growth across the GCC is projected to rise in the medium term, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund released in June. The IMF forecast growth of 3.2 percent in 2025, with a further increase to 4.5 percent expected in 2026.

"The GCC's GDP at current prices grew by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $587.8 billion in the fourth quarter," the ONA report stated, citing the GCC-Stat data.

This indicated a stable economic environment, with non-oil sectors continuing to play a pivotal role in sustaining growth amidst global economic uncertainties.

Building on the GCC trend, Saudi Arabia has projected real GDP growth of 4.6 percent in 2026, supported by expected gains in non-oil activity.

In its pre-budget statement released last week, the Ministry of Finance set the 2025 growth projection at 4.4 percent, reflecting the economy's sustained performance in the first half of the year.

The report said the 2025 forecast "is driven by an estimated 5.0 percent increase in non-oil activities, supported by increased domestic demand and improved employment rates, which contribute to rises in both private consumption and investment, while reinforcing the resilience of economic growth."

The 2026 GDP forecast positions Saudi Arabia ahead of the International Monetary Fund's 3.1 percent projection for the global economy and surpasses the IMF's forecasts for the US, China, Japan, and the euro area.

The UAE also recorded real GDP growth of 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2025, the state news agency reported last month, citing preliminary estimates from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Center.

Among non-oil activities, the UAE's trade sector contributed the most to GDP at 15.6 percent, followed by finance and insurance at 14.6 percent, manufacturing at 13.4 percent, construction at 12 percent, and real estate at 7.4 percent.

Arab News