Dubai outshines as GCC markets trail global rally in a divided year

05/01/2026 04:16 AST

GCC equity markets ended 2025 with mixed performances, underlining a widening gap between regional exchanges and global peers, as well as sharp divergences within the Gulf itself.

Dubai emerged as one of the standout performers in the region, while Abu Dhabi posted a steadier, more subdued recovery, according to Kamco Invest research. The contrast highlighted how sector composition, liquidity, and exposure to global trends shaped market outcomes during a year marked by geopolitical strain and falling oil prices.

Dubai's benchmark index finished 2025 as the third-best performing market in the GCC, rising 17.2 per cent to close at 6,047.1 points. While the gain marked the index's fifth consecutive annual advance, it was also the third-largest yearly increase over the past four years, pointing to a maturing but still resilient uptrend. Five of the exchange's eight sectors ended the year higher, led by materials, which surged 29.9 per cent, followed closely by communication services and industrials, up 29.5 per cent and 28.1 per cent respectively. The consumer discretionary sector weighed on performance, sliding 24 per cent and underscoring uneven sectoral momentum beneath the headline gains.

Dubai Financial Market's total market capitalisation rose 14.7 per cent year on year to Dh1.029 trillion, driven in part by a strong pipeline of new listings. The IPO of Alec Holding stood out, drawing Dh29.8 billion in orders, equivalent to a 21 times oversubscription, and raising Dh1.4 billion. Trading activity also accelerated sharply. Volumes climbed 19.8 per cent to 60.4 billion shares, while the value of shares traded jumped 55.3 per cent to Dh161.8 billion, reflecting increased participation in large-cap stocks and newly listed names. Emaar Properties dominated turnover with Dh46.4 billion worth of shares traded, followed by Emaar Development and Emirates NBD.

The strength of Dubai's equity market was mirrored by robust economic fundamentals. The emirate's real estate sector recorded its strongest year on record, with transaction volumes rising 17.1 per cent to 212.8 thousand deals and total sales values surging 27.3 per cent to Dh667.6 billion. Apartment sales were particularly strong, with volumes up 19.3 per cent and values rising 25.4 per cent. The IMF forecast Dubai's GDP growth at 3.4 per cent for 2025, citing diversification and resilience amid global uncertainty, while official data showed GDP expanding 4.4 per cent in the first half of the year, led by construction growth of 8.5 per cent.

In contrast, Abu Dhabi delivered a more modest equity market recovery. The ADX General Index rose 6.1 per cent in 2025 to close at 9,992.72 points, rebounding after two consecutive years of decline. Market capitalisation increased 3.7 per cent to Dh3.03 trillion, supported by gradual gains across select sectors. Real estate led sectoral advances with a 15.4 per cent rise, followed by telecommunications and financials. However, sharp declines in consumer staples, healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks, alongside a mild pullback in utilities, capped broader market upside.

Trading activity on the ADX was nevertheless robust. Volumes surged 35.3 per cent to 85.8 billion shares, while value traded rose 31.0 per cent to Dh316.0 billion. International Holding Company, ADNOC Gas and Aldar Properties were among the most actively traded stocks by value. Abu Dhabi's real estate market also outperformed, with transaction values jumping 36 per cent to Dh165.5 billion and volumes rising 50 per cent, reinforcing the emirate's growing appeal as a transparent and well-regulated property market. The IMF expects Abu Dhabi's real GDP to expand by 6 per cent in 2025, supporting a stronger medium-term outlook.

At the regional level, GCC markets once again lagged global indices. The MSCI GCC Index gained just 1.6 per cent in 2025, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, crude oil weakness and declines in heavyweight Saudi stocks. Brent crude prices fell 18.5 per cent during the year, pressuring energy-heavy markets, while Saudi Arabia's TASI declined 12.8 per cent, making it the only GCC market to post an annual loss. Oman and Kuwait outperformed with gains of 28.2 per cent and 21.0 per cent respectively, leaving Dubai firmly among the regional leaders.

Globally, equity markets enjoyed a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, driven by a powerful rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks and easing monetary policy. Major benchmarks in the US, Europe and Asia rose around 17 per cent, while emerging markets surged more than 30 per cent, sharply outperforming the GCC. Against this backdrop, Dubai's strong showing underscored its growing alignment with global growth themes, even as the wider Gulf region continued to grapple with structural and geopolitical headwinds, market watchers said.

Khaleej Times